Assessing China’s Coal Phaseout: Well-Being Impacts

As the global urgency to address climate change intensifies, China’s ambitious plan to phase out coal power represents one of the most significant shifts in the energy landscape of the 21st century. Recent research conducted by Gao, Zhou, Zhang, and colleagues, published in Nature Communications, provides an unprecedented, comprehensive evaluation of both the socioeconomic and subjective well-being impacts associated with this massive transition. Their study, unfolding across China’s vast coal-dependent regions, offers crucial insights into how the world’s largest energy transformation might unfold—not only in terms of environmental benefits but also in social and human terms.

Coal power has long served as the backbone of China’s rapid economic development. The fuel’s dominance ensured energy security and affordability, powering industries and cities alike. However, the environmental and health costs have been severe, with coal combustion responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and subsequent public health crises. China’s decision to systematically retire coal-fired power plants aligns with its commitments under the Paris Agreement, aiming to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Yet, the trade-offs of such a transition are complex and multifaceted.

Gao and colleagues adopted a multidisciplinary approach to assess these trade-offs, combining economic modeling, surveys, and subjective well-being metrics. Their methodology incorporated a dynamic socio-economic framework to capture regional disparities, employment shifts, income changes, and public sentiment as communities face the closure of coal power facilities and a shift toward cleaner energy sources. The study spanned urban and rural coal-dependent regions to paint a nuanced picture of the transition’s human dimension.

One of the cornerstone findings is that the phaseout of coal power, while undeniably beneficial for air quality and climate change mitigation, presents significant short- to medium-term economic disruptions. Coal-dependent regions, particularly those reliant on coal mining and electricity generation jobs, face risks of unemployment, wage declines, and reduced local government revenues. These economic pressures have ripple effects on community services, infrastructure investments, and social stability, all of which bear heavily on residents’ quality of life.

However, the authors emphasize that economic challenges are not deterministic. The study demonstrates that proactive policy measures, including targeted retraining programs, investment in renewable energy industries, and social safety nets, can substantially mitigate adverse impacts. Regions that implemented these measures showed signs of economic resilience and more positive subjective well-being scores among residents, highlighting the importance of governance and foresight in managing the energy transition.

Subjective well-being emerges as a critical and often overlooked factor in energy policy. Gao et al. utilized extensive survey data capturing residents’ perceptions of their economic security, health, community cohesion, and future outlook. They found that perceived economic stability correlated strongly with mental health and life satisfaction, underscoring the psychological dimensions of the coal phaseout. Importantly, communities witnessing clear government support and visible economic diversification reported higher well-being despite economic uncertainties, pointing to the power of communication and inclusive planning.

The spatial heterogeneity in impacts is another key insight. The geographic distribution of coal power plants and the varying reliance of local economies on coal-related industries meant that vulnerability was uneven. Northern and western provinces with higher dependency faced bigger socio-economic shocks, whereas more diversified urban centers experienced smoother transitions. This unevenness demands tailored policy responses that consider local contexts to avoid exacerbating regional inequalities.

On the technological front, the study delves into the challenges of scaling up renewable energy to fill the void left by coal. Transitioning to a low-carbon grid requires substantial investments in wind, solar, hydro, and grid infrastructure, alongside innovations in energy storage and smart grid technologies. However, these technologies also bring new opportunities for local economies through job creation in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance, which could offset job losses in coal sectors if managed properly.

The paper also explores health co-benefits of the coal phaseout. Reduced particulate matter and toxic emissions from coal plants are expected to yield significant decreases in respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. These health improvements translate into economic gains through reduced healthcare costs and increased worker productivity, further strengthening the case for decarbonization. However, capturing these benefits requires timely action and sustained public health monitoring to quantify and communicate progress.

Financial and policy mechanisms are highlighted as pivotal enablers. The authors analyze carbon pricing, subsidies for clean energy, and social welfare programs as instruments to balance economic and social outcomes. Their findings advocate for a just transition framework that prioritizes displaced workers and vulnerable communities through re-skilling, social insurance, and participatory decision-making processes, ensuring no one is left behind.

An intriguing dimension of the study is its inclusion of cultural and social identity factors tied to coal heritage. In many coal-producing regions, coal mining is intricately linked to local identity and pride. The psychological impact of losing such economic and cultural pillars requires sensitive handling—engaging communities in redefining their futures and promoting narratives of renewal and resilience are as important as economic restructuring.

The research also offers lessons for other countries undergoing energy transitions. While China’s scale is unprecedented, the interplay of economic, social, and psychological factors in energy phaseouts has global resonance. Countries with coal-dependent economies must account for these multifaceted impacts and adopt integrated policies that promote environmental goals alongside social justice.

Communication strategies surfaced as a final but critical component. Transparent, ongoing dialogue between governments, industries, and citizens helps manage expectations and build trust. The study found that areas with clearer communication about the benefits and supports of coal phaseout experienced less public resistance and better community engagement, smoothing the transition pathway.

Gao and colleagues’ work represents a landmark step toward understanding the human dimension of the energy transition. By combining rigorous quantitative analysis with rich qualitative data, they offer a blueprint for policymakers aiming to navigate the thorny balance between decarbonization and socio-economic well-being. Their findings make it clear that the path to a cleaner future can—and must—be equitable, inclusive, and attentive to the lived experiences of affected populations.

As China moves forward with its coal power phaseout, this research provides vital evidence to guide the process thoughtfully. It reminds us that climate action, when paired with social considerations and technical innovation, can forge a sustainable and just energy future—both within China and worldwide.

Subject of Research: Socio-economic and subjective well-being impacts of coal power phaseout in China.

Article Title: Evaluating socio-economic and subjective well-being impacts of coal power phaseout in China.

Article References:
Gao, S., Zhou, P., Zhang, H. et al. Evaluating socio-economic and subjective well-being impacts of coal power phaseout in China. Nat Commun 16, 2320 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57561-8

Image Credits: AI Generated

Tags: air pollution and health crisescarbon neutrality in China 2060China coal phaseout impactscoal power and economic developmentenergy security and coal dependencyenvironmental benefits of coal retirementfuture of renewable energy in Chinamultidisciplinary assessment of coal phaseoutParis Agreement commitmentspublic health impacts of coal powersocioeconomic effects of coal transitionsubjective well-being in energy transition