Risk adjusted net present value: What is the current valuation of Bavarian Nordic’s PXVX-0317?
PXVX-0317 is a subunit vaccine commercialized by Bavarian Nordic, with a leading Phase III program in Chikungunya Fever. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 8 clinical trials, of which 7 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of PXVX-0317’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.The revenue for PXVX-0317 is expected to reach an annual total of $47 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.PXVX-0317 OverviewCHIKV-VLP is under development for the prevention of chikungunya viral infection. The therapeutic candidate is administered through intramuscular route. The vaccine candidate is a virus like particle vaccine that consists of CHIKV VLP composed of E1, E2 and capsid proteins.Bavarian Nordic OverviewBavarian Nordic is a vaccine company that develops, manufactures and commercializes vaccines for the prevention of life-threating diseases. The company develops its products using poxvirus-based technology platforms including modified vaccinia Ankara –Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN). The company’s marketed products include JYNNEOS for smallpox and monkeypox; Encepur for tick-borne encephalitis; MVABEA for ebola; and Rabipur/RabAvert for rabbies. Its pipeline products are intended for the treatment of smallpox, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, HER2- and brachyury-expressing cancers and Ebola infections. Bavarian Nordic has collaboration with the US government and various institutes, to develop its product candidates for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. It has a presence in the US, Denmark, Switzerland and Germany. Bavarian Nordic is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark. The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK3,150.8 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 66% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was DKK70.8 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of DKK313.6 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was DKK347.4 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of DKK464.8 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of DKK1,986.6 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, an increase of 58.7% over the previous quarter. For a complete picture of PXVX-0317’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
PXVX-0317 is a subunit vaccine commercialized by Bavarian Nordic, with a leading Phase III program in Chikungunya Fever.
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